New Morning

Penning the first long post in the New Year is a delicate task.

Should one go back through the events of the preceding year, placing them into some sort of hierarchy ? Among the cataclysms and the godsends, the films and the books, the stock markets and mergers, the world's ecstatic winners and abysmal losers, there is always room for debate, discussion and discourse. Which disaster was in fact the worst ? Which Hollywood blockbuster was the most memorable ? Which personality - in politics, media, crime, sports - deserves to be singled out, for praise or for blame ? Such rankings are all in the eye of the beholder, after all.

Should one set down on paper one's predictions for the upcoming twelve months ? This is risky and fraught with peril, since foretelling in black and white what is supposedly to come can quite easily be checked for accuracy - one has only to wait twelve months. Every year astrologers, psychics, crystalball gazers, readers of tea leaves and other pundits attempt prophecies and forecasts: a certain politician elected, a stock market index surpassed, a cinema award won, a catastrophe undergone. They never, ever give up, in spite of lamentable track records and an apparent absence of a humble willingness to learn from their mistakes.

Should one meticulously enumerate one's resolutions for the New Year ? Such a list, drawn up in what must be presumed to be good faith, of course, reveals quite a bit about the writer, especially perceived weaknesses. What can be inferred when one reads "being nicer to everyone", "losing weight", "working out more", "spending more time outdoors", and "quitting smoking" in one individual's program for the year ? If not that the writer is a cranky, obese, couch potato wreathed in blue smoke, what else ?

Finally, should one make public one's wish(es) for the New Year ? Is that not presumptuous ? Will it not call down the wrath of the wishing gods ?

So, on y va ! Amerloque will herewith rank one event in France, make one prediction about France, share one resolution and make one wish - all to kick off the New Year !

Amerloque feels that, although the past year in France saw its share of noteworthy happenings (including, in no particular order, a change of government, a partial privatization of EDF, spectacular civil unrest in slum neighborhoods, the purchase outright by the His Grace the Duke of Westminster of two major upscale flea markets at the Porte de Clignancourt, the splintering of the Socialist Party, substantial rollbacks in social protection, the closing of the Samaritaine department store in Paris, the bicentennial of the 1905 Law concerning the separation of church and state, and the unofficial kickoff to the presidential elections two years hence), the most important event was the people's rejection of the European Constitution in the May referendum.

Portrayed as a "surprise", a "shock", and even a "disaster" by most mainstream politicians and the media - all of whom, apparently, are living on the same cloud in lalaland - the 55% to 45% vote (a 10% difference !) was, as the French say, sans appel ("incontrovertible" will do nicely). The runup to the election was wonderful: the French rose admirably to the occasion and demonstrated by their committed conversations and cerebral conferences why the country is Cartesian. Less than admirable, however, have been the subsequent media/political blackouts over the reasons for the French rejection. The "pollsters" and the media reported that the French voted non on the constitutional treaty because they were "frightened", "fed up with President Chirac", "worried about the future" and "upset about the economy, especially unemployment".

Well … while reasons such as these definitely contributed to the defeat of the Constitution, Amerloque's experience – for what it's worth - is that quite a few French people voted non because they are fed up with "Europe". In spite of the political and media obfuscation, deformation, falsification, misinformation, exaggeration, and prevarication, the link between Europe and the rapidly declining French standard of living overall became clear to many French people - and they voted non on the Constitution. They've had enough of "Europe". Well-intentioned pro-Europe arguments - such as "the single market with millions of consumers", "a world power to compete with the USA and China", and "the only answer to rampant globalization" - took a back seat to what French men and women see around them and are faced with every day: an increasingly underperforming health and retirement system, rising violence in the society, a seemingly dumbed-down public educational system, fewer and fewer trains in what used to be an excellent railway network for all, more and more unemployment for young people and subsequent emigration ... among other issues. The loss of national sovereignty to Europe over the past twenty-five years, which would enable France to deal promptly and forthrightly with some, if not all, of the problems, was yet another reason for the non, by the way, as was the adoption of the euro, the European common currency, which was presented as part of the solution but is viewed by many as part of the problem.

Probably no concept during the debates preceding the referendum symbolized the apparent stake as much as "the Polish plumber". This mythical character symbolized all that was "wrong" - in reality or by hyperbole - with the European Constitution, and, by extension, the Europe of today: "social dumping". Workers from the newly-admitted Eastern countries would be able to work throughout Western Europe ... but only be paid salaries at the same level as those their "home" countries, thus undercutting local (French) artisans and workers and throwing them onto the unemployment rolls.

Ever alert to its image in Western Europe, and especially in France, with which it has historic ties dating back many centuries, Poland caught the ball on the bounce after the non vote and turned "the Polish plumber" into a clever marketing ploy to attract tourists.




The brilliant travel poster ("I'm staying in Poland ! Come on, everyone !") is a fitting symbol of Amerloque's choice as the most important event in France in 2005.




Now, as to Amerloque's one prediction for 2006 ... since the end of the riots in November, the media - especially the TV - and political parties have been urging the young people in the projects to register to vote. Certainly, December 31st is the cutoff every year: registration by that date guarantees that one's name will appear on the voters' lists on the following March 1st, during the annual revision/update. However, for over a month, the French at large have been repeatedly and stridently informed that if the "project youths" (les jeunes des cités) really want change, they should register to vote, right now, quickly. From what Amerloque has been able to gather, the calls have been heeded: voter registration is up something like 30% over the preceding year in some "project" towns around Paris.

Wait a minute ... um ... er ... there are no elections scheduled in 2006 ! So what's the rush ? What's going on ? The next elections are scheduled for … 2007. There are national elections (presidential, legislative and senatorial) and local (municipal and cantonal) elections. The Prime Minister, M de Villepin, has proposed moving the two local elections to 2008, so as to reserve 2007 for national elections and … to avoid all-too-possible voter fatigue. This is currently being decided in the Conseil d'Etat, apparently.

Amerloque is familiar with that old French maxim il n'y a pas de fumée sans feu ("There's no smoke without fire") … so here's his out-on-a-limb, free of charge prediction: there will be a national election in 2006, either a "presidential" or a "legislative". No crystal ball, no tea leaves or coffee grounds, no necromancy, no Ouija board, no Tarot cards, no astrology, no statistics, no nothing - just a strong feeling - a hunch, if you will. Given the past, one would be ill-advised indeed to count M Chirac down and out too soon …so perhaps a snap election is in the cards, if the circumstances are right. It's the only prediction for the coming year that Amerloque is willing to share … in black and white, at least.

Amerloque's one 2006 resolution is … "to do better". The resolution is the same, year after year, so Amerloque is breaking no new ground here. (smile)

To close, Amerloque's one wish is that when un américain or une américaine decides to blog about Paris, he or she will avoid posting mindless adolescent drivel about doggy-doo on the Paris sidewalks. We know already. C'est fatiguant, à la longue, et assez réducteur, vous ne trouvez pas ?


L'Amerloque

©Text Copyright 2006 by L'Amerloque